MichaelCD - The Blog.

The thoughts of Michael Cadwallader. Coffee loving, history book reading, Cheshire man.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Cameron - My verdict.

The opinions on David Cameron following the Tory conference, have been mixed. In fact, the word 'underwhelming' comes to mind. Nonetheless, there is still a feeling amongst the Conservative Party faithful that they are on to a winner, and will defeat a Gordon Brown led Labour party, at the next election.

A prime example of this is the talented young blogger, Sam Tarran. In a post titled 'The Future's Bright - The Future's Blue', he enthuses about the Cameron revolution. And, he firmly believes that Cameron will sweep the Conservatives to power at the next general election.
I, however, do not. The simple fact is that Cameron is there for the taking, and Labour know that.

Cameron's poll lead was blown out of proportion due to the unpopularity of Blair and the Blair/Brown feud. The fact the Conservatives haven'’t had such a lead since the 80s made it all the more impressive. But, with peace temporarily restored in the Labour party, and with Tony Blair's saccharine speech receiving over the top plaudits, the large lead has now disappeared.

As I said, the current thinking within the Conservative Party is fairly confident. The widely held belief is that when the election comes, and with the parties so close together on policies, it will simply be an '‘image contest'’ between Cameron and Brown.
Obviously, such a contest would see an emphatic win for Cameron.

However, the stage is now set for the final Gordon Brown budget. A budget that will be marked by three words, Panem et Circensis.
Bread and circuses. Brown's pre-election budget was a masterpiece of bribery. As much as it will probably pain him, Brown will offer up a veritable raft of goodies. And, as he has seen the popular reaction to abolishing income tax on soldiers fighting abroad, more than likely he will purloin that as well.

On the back of these promises, Gordon Brown will be the next PM.
Promises and bribes will triumph over image. And, with four election defeats behind them, the Conservatives will probably split. Sadly, that is how I see events unfolding. I just hope that it'’s the pessimism within me that sees the horizon looking so bleak. And, that I will be proved wrong - again.


At 8:32 pm, Blogger Martin said...


It is to heoped that the Conservatives rember what is to be conservative before too long...

If that doesn't happen then they will spilt, for sure...

At 11:19 am, Blogger Michaelcd said...


That is the point of this little cri de coeur. Conservatives have to realise that aping Social Democracy, and hoping to win on image alone, will not lead lead them to victory. They have to win the debate on Conservative principles. And they have to attack Gordon Brown on the economy. The media and the public may think he is a miracle worker, but we have the third worst current acount deficit in the world, and the long term consequences of this spell trouble in the future.


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